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The sun hasn’t shone much over the Christmas period however, the lead up to the Christmas period saw a refocus by the UK government on solar photovoltaic energy. Announced on the 22nd of December, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) consultancy will look at microgeneration and the way the UK government can help small scale renewable energy through mechanisms such as the feed-in tariff which has already proved successful.

The feed-in tariff, introduced back in April incentivises investment in renewable microgeneration by offering fixed, premium rates for units of energy both used and fed back into the grid. Already, this mechanism has seen a huge growth in solar pv investment with traditional industries such as farming taking advantage of the profits to be made out of solar panels. Despite this government support for renewable energy, there are some fears that if the plug is pulled on the tariff too soon,

future projects and of course the future of UK renewable energy will be jeopardised indefinitely.

The consultancy which will last until March 2011 will endeavour to ensure that the longevity of UK renewable energy is secured through foresight and careful legislation. The Department of Energy and Climate Change has stated that the consultancy will focus on ‘quality, technology, skills and information’ and that ‘consumers need confidence that microgeneration kit will be of good quality. The industry needs to develop the technologies, the supply chain needs skilled workers to install kit and consumers need good information on microgeneration’.

Announcing the consultancy, Energy Minister Greg Barker said,

“We’ve already pledged financial support to encourage people to install kit like solar panels and heat pumps, today’s consultation will ensure that the industry and consumers have the confidence to invest.”

Certainly, while the financial mechanisms are in place for the time being, consumer confidence is still lacking in what is a fledgling industry not always attracting responsible business operations. Speaking on behalf of the more responsible side of solar energy operations, Dave Snowden head of the Micropower Council said,

“We have already seen extraordinary growth in microgeneration power generation solutions thanks to the introduction of the feed in tariff earlier this year, and look forward to similar incentives being extended to renewable heating and hot water systems next June. Today’s welcome proposals will help the industry grow with proper attention to quality, technology and skills development, whilst making it all much easier for consumers.”

Heating contractor EAGA are piloting a solar scheme across council homes in Welwyn Hatfield Council in a project designed to add hundreds of solar photovoltaic panels to households. In a scheme similar to carbon reduction programs happening all across the UK, the Hertfordshire scheme will utilise the feed-in tariff in order to save money and of course, reduce carbon emissions.

The feed-in tariff works by offering fixed, premium rates for units of energy generated by small scale renewable energy projects exactly like the one piloted in Hertfordshire. The EAGA scheme will seek to save each household money on fuel bills because of the obvious savings on electricity. As well as the financial rewards to the scheme, the solar photovoltaic installations will save around 1200kg of CO2 a year per household.

Across the 25 year life time of the scheme this equates to 30 tonnes, a sizeable amount which if replicated elsewhere would certainly contribute significantly to UK carbon reductions. Suitability for the solar scheme will obviously depend on such factors as aspect and roof size, however a large number of council schemes across the UK will inevitably cotton onto the EAGA project and seek to make carbon reductions and indeed generate revenue through the feed-in tariff.

Councillor Roger Trigg said with regards to the Welwyn project,

“We are proud to start the New Year with such a positive and innovative scheme, which will mean real savings in our tenants’ energy bills and their overall carbon footprint. We recognise how important it is for our tenants to manage the cost of keeping their homes warm and comfortable. Our homes have already been recognized as some of the most thermally efficient in the UK, and this strengthens our commitment to energy efficiency even further.”

While there is currently a focus on government spending cutbacks, such council schemes indicate how renewable energy, twinned with the feed-in tariff can be a real, viable means of both reducing carbon emissions, saving money and ultimately, helping to boost industry and create much needed jobs.

The comprehensive spending review of October 20th could have spelt a disaster for the UK solar industry if they had instantaneously cut the feed-in tariff.  Thankfully no such cut was made and the industry can continue on as before, at least for now.  All feed-in tariffs are designed be decreased on a regular basis.  This is so that the return on investment from a given renewable energy technology stays the same over time.  The great thing about feed-in tariffs is that they decrease and decrease until they reach the same value as retail electricity prices, at which point you’re at grid parity and you don’t need the feed-in tariff anymore.  Its hard to predict exactly when this will happen but in the case of UK solar PV, costs decrease very rapidly and I think that in 5 years time grid parity will be very close.

Currently the UK feed-in tariff is not set to be reviewed until April 2012, with changes possibly not coming in until 2013.  In most feed-in tariff markets, the tariff decreases annually, so not changing our feed-in tariff for two whole years is too long in my opinion.  The feed-in tariff at today’s PV prices provides a fantastic return on investment. 9-12% annual return for 25 years beats nearly everything you could get in an ISA or other savings product.  In two years time, with another two years of cost reduction, the investment return could be significantly higher than it is now.  Frankly, as someone who works in the solar industry, I say that this would be a bad thing.  What the industry needs to see is steady year on year growth, not a boom and bust.  The tariff is fine where it is for now, but soon it needs to be decreased to ensure the returns don’t get too high.  The returns are high enough to trigger major growth in the industry, if they are too high then we will see more and more people pile into the market in a way that is unsustainable.  The tariff would then have to be cut very significantly to control the market, which would lead to a massive drop-off.

It is very important that the industry has visibility on what will happen to feed-in tariffs so businesses can plan ahead.  To solve this Germany have announced what will happen to the feed-in tariff based on the results of the previous year. That means that if the market reaches a certain size, the egression the following year will be larger and vice-versa. The details of this are published so that everyone can see what the degression rates could be – we need this level of visibility in the UK.

Another big problem with feed-in tariffs is that they cause a surge of installations in the run-up to a feed-in tariff degression – which is not particularly healthy.  What would be best is to decrease the feed-in tariff little and often, so there are no sudden jolts to the industry.  Italy has just introduced quarterly feed-in tariff degression i.e. decreasing the feed-in tariff every 3 months instead of once a year.  I think this is a great idea.  As long as the degression each quarter is small and planned ahead, the industry will be able to continue to grow steadily without the need for big every year or every two years.  France on the other hand are considering an annual cap to the PV market.  This is absolutely terrible for the industry as it limits everybody’s growth and will cause redundancies across the industry in France if it goes ahead.

So now we are back on our feet in the UK, lets think about how to create a stable solar industry going forward by decreasing the FiT in a sensible way.  It could be that we follow the Italians lead on this one.

Last Friday (24th September) news broke on the Coalition government’s decision to back down on their promise of retroactively granting the feed-in tariff to 6000 ‘pioneers’ who installed PV before the feed-in tariff was announced.  This is undoubtedly unfair since those pioneers were responsible for keeping some semblance of a UK PV industry alive in recent years whilst the industry was booming elsewhere in Europe.  In light of the government’s austerity measures however, I do not consider it an outrage that these few people are denied the FiT.  Early adopters of renewable energy are unlikely to be in the lowest paid income bracket and at a time when many public sector workers face redundancy the government can argue that they have more pressing issues to deal with.

What is concerning however, are unconfirmed reports that the government is thinking of changing of lowering the feed-in tariff before April 2012.  This would be extremely unwise.  Feed-in tariffs are a success because they offer investors (whether banks or families) some foresight as to how much they stand to make. Solar panels are very much a long-term investment, and feed-in tariffs work because you can predict how much you will earn in year 25 of the investment as well as in year 1. Therefore, by changing the planned feed-in tariff degression schedule at short notice, investors lose confidence very quickly. How can a homeowner plan to have a PV installation when the feed-in tariff could be lowered in a month? How can a PV installation company forecast its installation schedule and hire someone if the feed-in tariff is to be changed next month?

Feed-in tariffs are designed to be significantly reduced every year – that’s to reflect decreases in the installed cost of PV systems and ensure that investment returns remain broadly consistent. Everyone knows that the feed-in tariff in the UK is due for its first degression in April 2012, but suddenly changing that schedule will disrupt innumerable business plans and threaten jobs. The feed-in tariff is designed to be decreased, I have absolutely no problem with that, in fact it probably didn’t need to be as high as it is to start with. The problem is only with unscheduled decreases as these cause havoc with the industry.  The UK already has an extraordinarily tiny PV industry in comparison with other major European countries.  By threatening to deviate from the planned degression schedule only 4 months into the scheme threatens to de-rail the beginnings of an industry that could employ tens of thousands of people in the UK.  Already this year the number of installations has dramatically increased as a result of the feed-in tariffs. However, the UK is forecast only to install around 15MW this year. This pales in comparison to Germany’s expected 8GW – its a factor of 500 difference!!

It is possible to build in flexibility into a feed-in tariff policy that controls market growth without causing surprises. In Germany, the annual feed-in tariff degression is now tied to the market size in the previous year. That means if the market is over a certain size then the degression will be more than normal, and if the market is smaller than targeted the decrease for next year will be less.  The UK government have not said anything about their intentions for April 2012. They would be well advised to start thinking about it now, rather than waiting until the last minute as they did before the feed-in tariff was introduced.  Using the German model, feed-in tariff policy could be set until the next general election, this would stand the UK in good stead.

No-one wants a boom-and-bust industry. The UK government should take measures now to reassure the industry that it is following an organised and planned strategy.  Rumours of sudden changes, whether real or imagined, could do more damage than many realise.