Good question. There is a huge amount of innovation happening everywhere in renewable energy and although solar technology has evolved rapidly in the last few years there is still a long way to go. There are lots of different aspects of a photovoltaic system that can be improved, and I will cover as many of them as I can on these pages.

First of all though, what is the basis on which we can judge these improvements? What is the ultimate goal here? Everyone can have their own opinion, but my ambition is to see solar energy compete economically with conventional energy sources, and for that to happen requires just one thing, lower cost of energy. Now you can get to lower cost of energy either by reducing the cost of the solar energy system or by increasing the amount of energy you get out of it. As we shall see, people everywhere are coming up with a lot of cool technology to go down both of these routes, but lets start with a company that I like called Nanosolar, who may eventually make the key step that makes solar power cheaper than coal.

First a bit of background: Solar panels are the most expensive part of a Solar electricity system, making up between half to two thirds of all the upfront costs. Most solar panels (sometimes called photovoltaic panels) are made from 50 or so ‘solar cells’ which are thin slices of silicon crystals specially treated so that they can turn sunlight into electricity. Its basically the same process that’s used to make electronic chips, which is fine for making tiny things that go inside your computer, but quite expensive for covering a small fraction of the earth’s surface with. Therefore a phenomenal amount of research has and is being done to find cheaper alternatives. So far the leading candidate for a replacement is the called ‘thin-film’ solar cell. In this case you start with flat panel of material such as glass, and coat the whole thing in a series of super-thin electronic layers that convert the sunlight into electricity. This process is cheaper than making normal silicon panels, however they are not as efficient at producing electricity.

Nanosolar are a frontrunner in developing thin film solar panels and are taking the technology to the next level. Most makers of thin-film solar panels need to use big vacuum chambers to deposit the semiconductor and can only process one panel at a time. Not so Nanosolar; they’ve cleverly developed a special electronic ink that they can literally ‘print’ onto big rolls of flexible metal sheets. Their factory in Silicon Valley looks very similar to a newspaper printing press – it’s much more suited to covering large areas.

When running at full speed the printing press should be able to cover XX football fields a day. Once the electronic layers have been printed on the foil they are cut into 6-inch squares and flown to another, newly opened factory in Germany where they are laid out into modules sandwiched in glass. Nanosolar claim their process is much cheaper than existing manufacturers out there, so cheap that it doesn’t matter that their panels are less efficient than traditional silicon solar panels. If this is really true be good news for consumers in the future, as Nanosolar could significantly bring down the price of solar panels.

Its not all plain-sailing for the US company however. They’ve been working on their process for nearly ten years and so far spent around half a billion dollars and have very little in the way of earnings. They’ll have to sell a lot of solar panels before their investors can start to relax. As with all new technologies, it takes time for customers to overcome reliability concerns, so getting to high sales volumes may take a bit of time.

Whether it’s Nanosolar that succeeds or one of the few dozen other firms pursuing similar strategies is not so important. What is important is that technology makes solar power economically viable without subsidies, and as we shall discuss on this blog, there are a lot of people out there dedicated to making that happen.

The end of the British government’s consultancy period on the introduction of a feed-in tariff (FIT) system, to be called the Clean Energy Cash Back System when introduced in April 2010 finished last week, sparking debate on the viability of the proposed system.

The Renewable Energy Association (REA) has raised doubts as to the potential effectiveness of the Cash Back System. The proposed system, essentially a feed-in tariff, works by offering fixed, premium rates for renewable energy fed-in to the grid by small scale (sub 5mW) energy producers, and bought by the utility companies who are obliged by the legislation to purchase the units of energy over a set number of years.

With the key purpose of the tariffs to attract investment in young renewable industries through incentivisation, the REA has expressed doubts about whether the rate offered by the government for clean energy will prove sufficient to spark sufficient investment.

Indeed, while supporters of the scheme have stated that 5% of the UK’s energy could be generated by renewable means by 2020, the UK government has set the meager target of 2% by 2020 triggering worries that the rate will not be high enough to demonstrate attractive returns for those wishing to invest in the new industries.

Speaking on behalf of the REA Leonie Greene stated,

“From the industry’s perspective the scheme is well designed, but the proposed tariff levels are set too low and applied inconsistently across technologies.”

Where feed-in tariffs have been introduced elsewhere, they have proved to be extremely effective mechanisms for generating huge interest in green energy. However, successes have been based upon generous, yet well balanced schemes and this will be a key factor in either the success or failure of the UK renewable industry.

Dave Timms, campaigner for Friends of the Earth expressed his own concerns,

“The Clean Energy Cash Back scheme has huge potential, but it will fail to make an impact unless the government dramatically improves the amount that will be paid to businesses, households and communities that generate renewable electricity.”

The British government’s commitment to green energy despite the political rhetoric has traditionally been written off as cynical pandering to the green lobby. Certainly, even with the creation of the impressively titled Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) under the leadership of Ed Milliband which was sniffed at as a mere spin operation, few took the government’s will to tackle climate change seriously. When the Energy Act was passed through parliament in November 2008 the wheels were set in motion for the introduction of the much hyped ‘feed-in tariff’ or FIT as it is often been abbreviated.

Those within the industry were all well aware that similar tariff mechanisms elsewhere have provoked massive investment in solar sectors which previously hadn’t been on the green energy map. The ‘We Support Solar’ campaign was created as a mouth-piece for industry members and environmentalists alike to voice the message that solar power is the most viable means of generating clean, affordable energy in the future but that this viability hinged on the introduction of a comprehensive and generous tariff rate. This last part was the main concern for campaigners who worried that the government would introduce legislation which would neither attract investment, nor render the industry economically viable. Fortunately, with the DECC’s announcement of the Clean Energy Cash Back legislation (essentially a FIT) it now appears that the UK will have a bright, solar future.

 A feed-in tariff is a mechanism whereby the government sets a law which guarantees a fixed, premium rate paid for electricity generated by renewable means. Traditionally, the benefits of solar electricity have been far outweighed by the cost of solar kits, installation and maintenance, something which has deterred investment and kept solar power as a low level, cottage industry in the UK. What the tariff does is off-set the obvious costs involved in the installation of solar plant by offering investors generous financial incentives for installing solar kit. The traditional energy companies in the UK will be obliged to purchase the solar energy at a price above market rates, the cost of this being spread over the consumers.

Even before the Clean Energy Cash Back announcement, the benefits to potential solar investors in the UK were being expounded. At the end of 2008 consultants, Ernst & Young reported that the UK had moved up to fifth place in a list of countries in an index entitled, Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness. Citing the impending introduction of the feed-in tariff and the relatively low value of Pound Sterling, the Ernst & Young report stated the UK’s rise in the index would continue as investors eventually cottoned-on to legislation changes designed to incentivise investors. It was therefore no surprise that heading the list was Germany whose own tariff legislation has often been held up as the example of how to create interest in unchartered territory for many investors.

Confidence in the future of the solar industry has certainly never been higher within the financial sector. The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance to many the need to diversify their investments and also seek viable alternatives to petro-chemical investment. In March 2009, the fund manager of Swisscanto, Pascal Schuler announced that oil and natural gas in particular would become unviable as investments within the next 20 years. Talking specifically about his green investment fund, Schular asserted that,

“Water, solar and wind energy are areas where we invest in the long-term, as there is an over-average growth potential when financing kicks off again. Banks will prefer them when they start lending.” Going on to add, “We will continue to invest in this segment but focus on companies which have a strong balance sheet and are able to survive this crisis”.

 A brief look at Google will show that there is now a real buzz around similar investments in the UK solar industry. Websites such as solarinvestment.co.uk are highlighting the excitement which currently exists in the young British solar industry, the future of which looks brighter than ever. However, confidence in the solar industry is not limited to those simply within the industry. Consultants and analysts are all putting across the message that solar installations are the most effective ways to offer consistent, high yields in tumultuous times for global financial markets. One such exponent of the solar sector is investment guru, Jim Mellon who has added his weight to the solar revolution. Mellon, has demonstrated his belief in the prospects for a solar energy future by investing in mining company ‘Emerging Metals’ which focuses specifically on metals required for the manufacture of components used in photovoltaic technology. Listed in the Times Rich List with a net worth of £500m, the financier who predicted the financial crash stated,

“Solar is genuinely clean, it ticks all sorts of zeitgeist boxes. Within five years, solar power will be as cheap as oil and gas without the subsidy. It will be bigger than the internet in five years”

Of course, whether the solar industry will be bigger than the internet in the UK over the next half decade is open to debate. What is now becoming clear however is that the UK solar sector will have everything in place come 2010 to help the sector become competitive with industries in Spain, Germany, China, California and a number of other places.

In order to make the UK competitive with other PV behemoths around the world, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has made it clear that he wants to establish a ‘Green New Deal’ making reference to the economic plan introduced by F.D. Roosevelt during the Depression to revitalise the US economy. In a statement, Brown said that moving the UK from a carbon to a green economy would not only help meet climate change targets, but also provide jobs in new industries which would be starting up. In a report released by Brown in March 2009, the figures stated that moving to a green economy would create up to 400,000 new jobs in the next eight years with an estimated 1.3 million people being involved in the UK solar sector by 2017. Gordon Brown, on a visit to Washington to meet Barack Obama declared,

“We know that the more we are able to co-ordinate these measures internationally, the more confidence and certainty we will build and the more investment we will be able to bring forward. That’s why I want to create a global ‘green new deal’ that will pave the way for a low-carbon recovery and to help us build tomorrow’s green economy today”.

With government backing, the UK is now in a strong position to build a solar sector which will be capable of emulating PV industries in Germany and Spain. In April 2010, the Clean Energy Cash Back (feed-in tariff system) will be introduced and the subsequent months will see a frenzy of activity both in the media and from investors as people attempt to join the industry in its infancy. 2010 will be a make or break year but it is now looking highly likely that as the economy goes out of recession and in to growth, the solar industry will reap the benefits of being both politically fashionable and financially attractive.

A reduction in the price of solar panels means the return on investment for solar energy installations is better than ever in Germany. In response, the construction rate in the second half of this year has skyrocketed. Toby Ferenczi discusses the implications for the world’s largest solar economy.

 What would you say if your financial advisor told you about an investment product that had guaranteed returns of 15%, was extremely safe and was government backed for 25 years? If you happen to live in Germany you may well be being told just this. Under Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (the EEG), anyone with a solar photovoltaic system can sell the energy produced to their local utility at a fixed and elevated price (in English this is often called a feed-in-tariff or clean energy cash back scheme). Germany introduced this scheme in earnest back in 2004, and since then the country has been the world’s largest solar energy market (except in 2008 when Spain introduced their own feed-in-tariff) meaning that over half of the world’s solar panels are installed in Germany. So if solar has been booming in Germany since 2004, what’s so special about what’s happening in 2009? The reason is that this year could well be Germany’s biggest year for solar installations by a factor of two, despite a major recession.

 According to the Münchner Merkur, a local Munich paper, the utility E.On is currently connecting 200 solar installations to the electricity grid in Bavaria every day, a level so high that it is struggling to keep up with demand. One leading industry analyst claims that installations in Germany will reach close to 4GW this year; equivalent to a market size of €16bn and a surface area the size of 4000 football fields. This is particularly staggering given how quiet the industry was at the beginning of the year when no banks were lending and investors were nursing their wounds. Since the end the second quarter however, many people have become aware of the window of opportunity, including everyone from families to major investors. Most installations (80-90% of market) are small rooftop installations, but some of the largest solar parks in the world are also currently under construction in Germany.

 The explanation for the surge comes from simply looking at the return-on investment. Under the EEG, the feed-in-tariff is supposed to decrease for new installations each year by around 10% with the hope that eventually solar energy will survive without subsidy. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the price of solar panels fell by 30% or more, meaning that the amount of money you can get back from your investment is unprecedented. Many Germans now appear to be taken with the idea of investing in a solar electricity system, something they can see and touch, rather than the ambiguous stock market that hurt them so badly.

 There is of course a dark side to this solar energy bonanza. Whilst the feed-in-tariff was supposed to create an economic incentive for renewable energy, it wasn’t supposed to help rich people get richer. Supporting the scheme costs the German taxpayer a significant amount, so a policy that creates an unbeatable financial product for people with access to roofs or land raises some ethical questions. Several reports of the ruthlessness with which landowners pursue the construction of large power plants have emerged. Millions of euros are at stake in making sure solar parks are finished before the year-end to have access to this year’s feed-in-tariff, and some landowners have been accused of not taking the well being of local communities into account.

 The newly elected German government will certainly be scrutinizing the situation very closely as they are expected to make a decision on the feed-in-tariff reduction in the next few weeks. Anti-feed-in-tariff lobby groups claim that the law is now simply handing money to the swathe of Chinese manufacturing firms that can now produce solar products at lower cost than the German firms.

 The feed-in-tariff will undoubtedly and necessarily take a big cut next year, but this will hopefully lead to more sustainable growth of the solar industry. As the price of solar electricity decreases further, the moment when it competes with conventional energy on its own terms will be brought forward. When consumers are able to make bumper returns from solar without the governments help, that will be an investment product worth fighting for.