The price of PV (photo voltaic) solar panels has dropped by as much as a third this year alone. This has had a huge impact on the returns available for home owners turning to solar.And there is a boom at present as consumers try to install the low-cost equipment before the level of handouts via the government feed-in tariff (FIT) is reassessed in April next year.

Solar Century, a larger London-based supplier that also assembles PV equipment, says a large amount of its equipment is imported from China.Britain has come late to the solar party with government ministers preferring in the past to concentrate on wind power and only fairly recently trying to stimulate demand by offering subsidies to solar users.

This has meant PV manufacture has been concentrated in countries such as Germany and Spain where harnessing the power of the sun has been encouraged for many years.The US, and more recently China, have gradually latched on to the growing global market for solar and have been setting up factories in double-quick time.But the very low labour costs – and allegedly the very cheap finance available from state-owned institutions – has rapidly propelled China into pole position in the production of solar equipment.

The rapid build-up in capacity in the Far East is playing a major role in driving down the cost of panels, but it is also being blamed for a crisis at many German and particularly American rivals.Whatever the reason for solar manufacturers losing out, it should be easy to see a winner: the British homeowner. But it is also tough for consumers deciding which panels they should buy knowing any producer could out of business and shred any 25-year guarantee along with it.

China, despite being criticised for its heavily industrialised, polluting economy and images of Beijing obscured by dense smog during the 2008 Olympic Games, the government is taking proactive steps towards reducing carbon emissions with measures that would shame certain other attendees of the Copenhagen climate summit.

With the growing realisation of the fallibility on basing the huge Chinese economy on fossil fuel imports which could become untenable within the next 25 years, the Beijing government is planning to spend billions of dollars in investing in solar and wind farm sites in addition to research projects which could keep China at the cutting edge of green energy generation.

Renewable energy generation grew by 1 per cent in China in the last 12 months with the government hopeful that figures will grow from the present 9.9 per cent to 15 per cent by 2020. The Chinese government is keen to diversify its economy as well as its means of energy generation with the dual purpose of slowing the effects of climate change and making the economy more robust in the face of any potential fuel crises which could arise in the near future.

In spite of passing legislation designed to have an immediate impact on renewable energy uptake such as the feed-in tariff, a mechanism to incentivise investment in green technologies, government spokesman Zhang Guobao is realistic about the timescales involved in such projects. Speaking to China Daily, Zhang commented that,

“Power projects take a long time to be up and running, and we are basically allowing five years to complete them although it is a 10-year program, otherwise, the facilities cannot be put into use by 2020.”

Zhang added, “It appears that some local governments approved energy-guzzling projects during economic crisis so only by fully implementing our energy saving regulations can we realize economic growth with less energy consumption.”

With various leading economies around the globe vying to become leaders in the renewable energy sector the Ernst & Young indices provides a tangible demonstration of how attractive the competing markets are to investors based on the measures taken by the respective governments. The commitments by the Chinese government to slow climate change through the reduction of carbon emissions has certainly been reflected in their rise in the investment indices.

Once the pariah of the international community with regards to fighting climate change, the Beijing government has demonstrated through legislation that they have a very earnest desire to slow the effects of climate change.

Recently the Chinese government announced 1.8 GW of solar installation throughout the vast country with investment incentivisation coming in the form of the Golden Sun subsidy scheme designed to transform the Chinese solar market from a purely manufacturing base into a world leader in solar PV installation. This, the report indicated was the key feature in China moving up the table from sixth place in 2007 to the joint number one position enjoyed today.

The report will come as an early Christmas present for the nations perched in the top 5 positions as it gives investors a comprehensive assessment of the most viable markets in which to invest based on criteria such as existing infrastructure, incentives and location benefits.

With the success of China as a potential solar PV market, analysts in the UK will not have missed the direct correllation between government action and market attractiveness, something which the report explicitly highlighted. The UK enjoyed limited success, moving up one point to sixth, an increase based on limited government action taken so far in the form of the creation of the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), the introduction of the Energy Act in November 2008 and the recent announcement of the Clean Energy Cash Back system, essentially a feed-in tariff to be introduced in April 2010.

The UK’s position of sixth could be bettered by the next indices published by Ernst & Young at the end of 2010 but will depend greatly on the initial successes of the UK market in the light of the newly implemented tariff system. At the present moment members of the lobby group We Support Solar are arguing that the UK government will have to increase the tariff rate if the UK is to compete with the emerging solar tiger economies with manufacturing bases much closer to home.

For more information on the Ernst & Young global renewable energy country attractiveness indices, please visit:

http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Industry_Utilities_Renewable_energy_country_attractiveness_indices/$file/Industry_Utilities_Renewable_energy_country_attractiveness_indices.pdf

 What would you say if your financial advisor told you about an investment product that had guaranteed returns of 15%, was extremely safe and was government backed for 25 years? If you happen to live in Germany you may well be being told just this. Under Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (the EEG), anyone with a solar photovoltaic system can sell the energy produced to their local utility at a fixed and elevated price (in English this is often called a feed-in-tariff or clean energy cash back scheme). Germany introduced this scheme in earnest back in 2004, and since then the country has been the world’s largest solar energy market (except in 2008 when Spain introduced their own feed-in-tariff) meaning that over half of the world’s solar panels are installed in Germany. So if solar has been booming in Germany since 2004, what’s so special about what’s happening in 2009? The reason is that this year could well be Germany’s biggest year for solar installations by a factor of two, despite a major recession.

 According to the Münchner Merkur, a local Munich paper, the utility E.On is currently connecting 200 solar installations to the electricity grid in Bavaria every day, a level so high that it is struggling to keep up with demand. One leading industry analyst claims that installations in Germany will reach close to 4GW this year; equivalent to a market size of €16bn and a surface area the size of 4000 football fields. This is particularly staggering given how quiet the industry was at the beginning of the year when no banks were lending and investors were nursing their wounds. Since the end the second quarter however, many people have become aware of the window of opportunity, including everyone from families to major investors. Most installations (80-90% of market) are small rooftop installations, but some of the largest solar parks in the world are also currently under construction in Germany.

 The explanation for the surge comes from simply looking at the return-on investment. Under the EEG, the feed-in-tariff is supposed to decrease for new installations each year by around 10% with the hope that eventually solar energy will survive without subsidy. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the price of solar panels fell by 30% or more, meaning that the amount of money you can get back from your investment is unprecedented. Many Germans now appear to be taken with the idea of investing in a solar electricity system, something they can see and touch, rather than the ambiguous stock market that hurt them so badly.

 There is of course a dark side to this solar energy bonanza. Whilst the feed-in-tariff was supposed to create an economic incentive for renewable energy, it wasn’t supposed to help rich people get richer. Supporting the scheme costs the German taxpayer a significant amount, so a policy that creates an unbeatable financial product for people with access to roofs or land raises some ethical questions. Several reports of the ruthlessness with which landowners pursue the construction of large power plants have emerged. Millions of euros are at stake in making sure solar parks are finished before the year-end to have access to this year’s feed-in-tariff, and some landowners have been accused of not taking the well being of local communities into account.

 The newly elected German government will certainly be scrutinizing the situation very closely as they are expected to make a decision on the feed-in-tariff reduction in the next few weeks. Anti-feed-in-tariff lobby groups claim that the law is now simply handing money to the swathe of Chinese manufacturing firms that can now produce solar products at lower cost than the German firms.

 The feed-in-tariff will undoubtedly and necessarily take a big cut next year, but this will hopefully lead to more sustainable growth of the solar industry. As the price of solar electricity decreases further, the moment when it competes with conventional energy on its own terms will be brought forward. When consumers are able to make bumper returns from solar without the governments help, that will be an investment product worth fighting for.

The FIT is a system which guarantees fixed, premium rates for solar producers who feed electricity in to the national grid. The high rate paid for each unit of electricity is met by the utility companies who in turn spread that cost over their customers. Therefore, in Spain with the introduction of the tariff system in 2007 with the rate of 0.44 euros offered for units of energy fed-in to the grid by solar producers the interest generated in the Spanish photovoltaic (PV) market was overwhelming. Indeed, combined with extensive coverage from the Spanish media along with Zapatero’s PSOE government’s commitment of making Spain the leading producer of solar energy in Europe by 2020, there was a phenomenal boom in the PV sector with the number of solar installations rising dramatically.

The UK government and in particular the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) since passing the Energy Act in 2008 have been moving towards a similar tariff system and in June 2009 announced that they would introduce a Clean Energy Cash Back system in the first quarter of 2010. In order to do so, they have undertaken a meticulous consultancy process in order to ensure that the mechanism which is introduced does exactly what it is intended to do i.e. make the UK solar industry strong and viable in the long term by attracting investment in the young sector. Spain certainly offers an example of how to attract investment in the short term. However, the Spanish example also offers stark examples of how not to set up a tariff system for long term industry health. The essential problem with the feed-in tariff which was established in Spain was that it was unable to cope with market fluctuations which arose as a result of the initial success of the tariff.

A recent report by the New York Times highlighted the failings of the Spanish solar legislation. Problems stemmed from the fact that politicians expected a steady stream of investment over a period of years. However, the massive interest which was generated in the fledgling industry encouraged a wave of investment in the first few months. The massive take up of solar installations was unexpected and caused the Spanish government to reduce solar incentives by 30 per cent without warning. Because the Spanish feed-in tariff failed to be market responsive, many investors who had already ordered deliveries of solar product from China, were left in the situation that they had no market in which to install it. With regards to the Spanish legislation, Julie Blunden of SunPower Corp was quoted in the New York Times,

“The most important lesson, which everyone has learned, is that if you’re going to establish a feed-in tariff, you need to figure out how to make it market-responsive.”

This will be the key lesson for the British government, how to introduce legislation which encourages growth in the new solar industry without setting a tariff level which is too high. In Spain, the government’s level of 0.44 euros was artificially high and therefore created the problem of an influx of investment which the government could not manage. Therefore, when the PSOE government reduced incentives by 30 per cent with many investors having already ordered large quantities of solar plant from manufacturing bases in China, the proverbial rug was pulled right from under them. Talking specifically about the legislation changes which had the detrimental effects on the Spanish PV market Santiago Seage, the CEO of Abengoa Solar SA commented on the situation saying,

“What’s important for the regulation of solar is stability. Unfortunately, up to now, we have had too many changes and if the context changes, you can make mistakes in business decisions.”

Spain has already experienced a dramatic reduction in photovoltaic installation in 2009 with 375MW compared to 2008 installations of 2,500MW. Spain will now fail to live up to its ambitions of becoming the European Union’s leading renewable energy producer by 2020 essentially because Zapatero’s government has neglected the tariff scheme across the country. The introduction of a 500MW project cap along with the withdrawal of essential subsidies has seen the solar industry stagnate and since the new year, decline. Members of the solar industry in the UK will therefore be hoping that the British government emulates the example of Germany rather than Spain in the way that they choose to roll out the much talked about feed-in tariff next year.

 With the solar feed in tariff legislation making the headlines in the UK under the guise of the Clean Energy Cash Back Scheme, the Chinese project will be taking advantage of a similar tariff system with the price of electricity guaranteed at a premium rate over a period of years. Tariff systems such as this have generally proved to be extremely effective means of generating investment in new solar sectors.

 Mike Ahearn, CEO of First Solar commented that,

 “The Chinese feed-in tariff will be critical to this project. This type of forward-looking government policy is necessary to create a strong solar market and facilitate the construction of a project of this size, which in turn continues to drive the cost of solar electricity closer to ‘grid parity’ where it is competitive with traditional energy sources.”

Certainly, it is expected that with the Chinese feed-in tariff policy in place, there will be a number of other large investments in the Chinese photovoltaic (PV) market over the coming months and years. China is also the largest manufacturer of PV product needed for solar projects around the world and is therefore attracting much interest from those wishing to provide turn-key products from manufacturing, construction and installation.

“This major commitment to solar power is a direct result of the progressive energy policies being adopted in China to create a sustainable, long-term market for solar and a low carbon future for China. We’re proud to be announcing this precedent-setting project today. It represents an encouraging step forward toward the mass-scale deployment of solar power worldwide to help mitigate climate change concerns,” announced Mike Ahearn.

With China and in particular the capital, Beijing under the spotlight in recent years with concerns over pollution and carbon emissions, China is now making a very powerful statement to the world that they are about to be at the forefront of the solar revolution.

The Chinese wind feed-in tariff system will inevitably attract investments in the offshore wind generation industry there with the hope that it will enable the clean, wind energy to compete with that generated via coal fired plants. The guaranteed premium rate which will be offered to wind generators will be met by the existing grid operators with the additional cost being spread over all electricity consumers. The idea is that bigger, more profitable wind plants will receive a more generous tariff rate in order to help them catch up with the bigger wind farms.

The tariff payments are set at around 0.51 Yuan the equivalent of £0.05 per unit of electricity fed in to the grid, depending on the size of the wind farm. Compared with the rate paid for coal fired electricity (0.34 Yuan) the wind farms will e set to receive a generous payment. The announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated that the scheme will,

“change current inconsistent pricing, foster clear expectations and facilitate investments in the sector”.

The previous system which operated regarding wind power electricity purchasing involved public bidding using low-rate tariffs which did not enable most wind farms to gain grid connectivity, a hindrance which meant that at least 20 per cent of China’s wind power producers were unprofitable. With the feed-in tariff system generally regarded as by far the most effective means of generating capital in green energy, China will be set to succeed in its bid to diversify its economy and become a major player in the world of green energy production.

Certainly, with the Beijing Olympics of last year, the worlds eyes were focused sharply on the Chinese capital and the seemingly permanent smog covering which acted as a testament to Chinese heavy industry and the proliferation of vehicles in modern China.

However, it is a marked change in Chinese legislation which prompted the New York newspaper to run with the ‘Green power takes root’ line. The change has come in the form of a national renewable energy level stating that utilities must generate 8 percent of their energy by renewable means by 2020. The fact that this 8 percent figure does not include hydroelectric power adds to the importance which the Chinese are now placing on green energy.

The growing awareness of the lack of long-term sustainability in traditional coal energy sources has prompted the Chinese government to take action to maintain China has a major industrial power well in to the future. There has also been somewhat of a frenzy among private companies seeing the opportunities that will undoubtedly present themselves in the Chinese renewable industry, with a growing activity particularly in sectors such as wind and photovoltaic technology which will inevitably boom in China in the near future.

The New York Times was keen to use this Chinese government action to make comparisons with the comparatively weak efforts being made in Washington to spur the renewable sector in the United States. Indeed, in the United Kingdom, with the recent feed-in tariff legislation, members of the green energy industry will be hopeful that government action in the UK will have the same effect it has had on the Chinese market.

The New York Times asserted its almost neurotic view of Chinese renewable growth compared to that of the US by warning,

“You won’t just be buying your toys from China, you’ll be buying your energy future from China.”

China has a target in place to produce 8000 megawatts of energy by wind energy by 2010 which they are set to smash. If China continues apace to move towards green energy, they will surely shame efforts currently being made in the West to develop their own sustainable renewable industries

To oversee this expansion, The Renewable Energy Industry Agency (IRENA) has been established as a multi-national agency dedicated to the growth the renewable sector. It is hoped that the agency will help energy companies invest in renewable plant and increase investment in green technology. Similarly, they will be hoping to develop an awareness of renewable energy solutions in developing nations. Sigmar Gabriel, the German Environment Minister stated that,

“IRENA will help to remove the many obstacles which up to now have delayed the rapid expansion of renewables. The market is still distorted by subsidies for conventional energies, technological know-how is inadequate, information is not always correct.”

Last Monday in Bonn saw the inaugural IRENA conference, attended by over 120 delegates of a number of nations, such as Germany, Spain, Denmark, India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kenya (all the founder members).

Although the agency is conspicuously missing the membership of such countries as Australia, China, the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom, its original founder members are more than happy with the uptake in participation thus far and are confident that the other major industrial nations will be brought on board eventually. Indeed, a British representative of the Department for Energy and Climate change who was present at the conference was quoted in the Guardian as saying,

“We are certainly supportive and are interested in joining, but we need to make sure that what we’re joining has the right focus. There needs to be more focus on the deployment of renewables rather than just talking policy and issuing papers. And there needs to be a wider membership.”